Economists and Public Opinion

Theory and Practice Frequently Diverge

Economics has long been called the dismal science. Some would disagree, however, and say the dismal part applies to the economists and not to the discipline itself.

Dismal or not, economists seem to agree more often than they disagree on major economic issues, according to a recent report in The Economist.

However, even though economists may generally agree on major economic issues – especially if there is a comprehensive body of literature on the issue itself – the public usually has a quite different opinion.

For example, economists uniformly believe it is very difficult for individual investors to out-perform stock market indices. Only 55% of the public agrees with that consensus. Further, 93% of economists contend that a carbon tax is a less costly method for cutting emissions than increasing automobile fuel efficiency. On this issue, only 23% of the public agrees.

The divergence in opinion has interesting policy implications. If public opinion differs markedly from economists' opinion, the policies favored and supported by the majority of economists have scant hope of gaining traction in the real world of politics.

One problem the economists face in establishing their credibility is that the solution to virtually all issues they address involves government intervention and action of one sort or another. At a point in time in which confidence in government – and, particularly, confidence in Congress – is on life support, there may be little doubt why the public hardly cares what economists think, individually or collectively.

from Shockproof! Training