Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Some interesting trends reflected in changes to consumer debt components. And mortgage debt continues its decline with refinancing generating a significant part of recent mortgage activity volume.
Will these trends be the ‘new normal’ for an extended period of time?
On the other hand, government debt continues to climb at record speed with no end in sight!
 
In the Fed report on household debt released yesterday, mortgage debt fell $120b, equity lines of credit shrank $16b, student loan debt rose $42b, auto loans rose $18b, and credit card balances rose $2b. As mortgage debt drops (through a combination of pay downs and defaults), student loans and auto debt is taking some of its place which will likely be an issue down the road. The Market Today ONLINE
Falling Mortgage Balances Offset Rising Student, Auto, Credit-Card Debt
By Josh Mitchell
Americans cut their debt further in the summer, with falling mortgage balances more than offsetting increases in other types of borrowing, new data show.
 
Household debt — the money Americans owe on home, auto and student loans, credit cards and other types of consumer debt — fell by $74 billion in the third quarter to $11.31 trillion as of Sept. 30, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Tuesday.The drop reflected a continued decline in mortgage debt, as some households paid down balances while others lost their homes in foreclosure.
Americans have reduced their debts by more than $2 trillion since household debt peaked in summer 2008, a process called deleveraging. Economists saythe process will put households on a sounder financial footing in the long term, though it has sapped consumer spending and slowed growth in the short term.
Some additional information regarding delinquency trends for credit cards and student loans: the fastest growing consumer loan component now has the highest level of delinquency.
 

 
 

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

retail sales and personal consumption

So, where is GDP headed? Where is the trend line leading us...

Saturday, November 3, 2012

jobs roller coaster

Looks like a roller coaster to me! When does the ride end?
Or maybe the better question is - how long do we have to deal with the ‘new normal’!