Friday, July 19, 2013


The latest data points -

- Housing starts plunge
- Jobless claims fall this week
- The leading economic indicator index - real economic growth is barely keeping apace of the population increase
- Mortgage applications continue their descent (it would be interesting to see the data of how many home sales over the last 12 months have been cash sales!)

One might reflect upon the persistent roller coaster-like data results of the new normal and consider it against the Fed's continuing to assertions that we are experiencing moderate to modest economic growth - with inflation too low and employment levels slowly 'moving' in the right direction and the coming taper process - oh, don't worry about that!
It seems like the old saying - 'one step forward, two steps back' is the meme for our current extended economic recovery process. 



• Second-Quarter Housing Starts Plunged at Annualized Quarterly Rate of 31.2%, Dimming the Outlook for Second-Quarter GDP 



Workers filed 24,000 fewer initial claims in the past week; the measure is just above its post-recession low.

Leading Economic Indicators Index in U.S. Was Unchanged – Bloomberg.
Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators 07.2013
This chart illustrates all you need to know about the recovery.  Over four years after the trough, the leading economic indicator index is still way below its pre-GFC highs.  Moreover, the index  has only advanced to 2003 levels.  Real economic growth is barely keeping apace of the population increase.  As long as the economy remains this weak, a shock, like a Chinese recession or more Middle East drama,  can easily plunge the country back into recession.

US mortgage applications slip anew; soaring rates bite.
Mortgage Applications 07.17.2013From ZeroHedge
Mortgage applications continue their descent and are bringing housing activity down with them.


Wednesday, July 17, 2013

housing data

The continued 'choppiness' of our economic new abnormal-normal is reflected in the ever present unexpected data numbers...it appears that the fundamentals do not have a solid base to build upon and the QE to infinity program has created the monster in the basement that generates fear anytime the discussion moves to taper talk....an economy built on a QE platform is showing its weaknesses and faults. What will history say about the efficacy of QE, the FOMC and ultimately the Fed's economic decision making ability!


This morning’s economic data came in weaker-than-expected. Housing starts fell to their lowest level of the year and building permits fell, both were below estimates. The data may take on greater-than-usual importance because of some of Bernanke’s comments. He will say “Housing has contributed significantly to recent gains in economic activity...but it will be important to monitor developments in this sector carefully.”    (The Market Today ONLINE)

Housing Data Softens


Source: Bloomberg
                                             Indicator                                  Period          Est.         Actual      Prior     Revised


7/17/2013 6:00 AMMBA Mortgage Apps.12-Jul---2.6%-4.0%
7/17/2013 7:30 AMHousing StartsJUN960K836K914K928K
7/17/2013 7:30 AMBuilding PermitsJUN1000K911K974K985K

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

inflation.....

Inflation Is Too Low? Are You Kidding Us Bernanke?

Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said this week that inflation in the United States needs to be higher.  Yes, he actually came right out and said that.  It almost seems as if Bernanke is trying to purposely hurt the middle class.  On Wednesday, Bernanke told the press that "both sides of our mandate are saying we need to be more accommodative".
Of course he was referring to the Fed's dual mandate to keep unemployment and inflation low, but Bernanke has a very unique interpretation of that mandate.  According to Bernanke, inflation in the U.S. is now "too low".  The official inflation rate is currently sitting at about 1 percent, and Bernanke insists that such a low rate of inflation is not good for the economy.  He would prefer that the rate of inflation be up around 2 percent, and he is hoping that more "monetary accommodation" will help push inflation up and the unemployment rate down.
But what Bernanke will never admit is that the official inflation rate is a total sham.  The way that inflation is calculated has changed more than 20 times since 1978, and each time it has been changed the goal has been to make it appear to be lower than it actually is.
If the rate of inflation was still calculated the way that it was back in 1980, it would be about 8 percent right now and everyone would be screaming about the fact that inflation is way too high.
But instead, Bernanke can get away with claiming that inflation is "too low" because the official government numbers back him up.
Of course many of us already know that inflation is out of control without even looking at any numbers.  We are spending a lot more on the things that we buy on a regular basis than we used to.
For example, when Barack Obama first entered the White House, the average price of a gallon of gasoline was $1.84.  Today, the average price of a gallon of gasoline has nearly doubled.  It is currently sitting at $3.49, but when I filled up my vehicle yesterday I paid nearly $4.00 a gallon.
And of course the price of gasoline influences the price of almost every product in the entire country, since almost everything that we buy has to be transported in some manner.
But that is just one example.
Our monthly bills also seem to keep growing at a very brisk pace.
Electricity bills in the United States have risen faster than the overall rate of inflation for five years in a row, and according to USA Today water bills have actually tripled over the past 12 years in some areas of the country.
No inflation there, eh?
Well, what about health insurance?
Yup, that has been going up rapidly as well.  Since 2010, employee health insurance premiums have been rising an average of between 8 and 9 percent a year.
So where is this low inflation that everyone has been talking about?
It certainly cannot be found in college tuition costs.  Since 1986, the cost of college tuition in the United States has risen by 498 percent.
What about at the supermarket?
We all have to buy food.  It sure would be nice if inflation was low there.
Unfortunately, anyone that shops for groceries on a regular basis knows exactly how painful food prices are becoming.
And over time, those increases really add up.  An article by Benny Johnson details how the prices of many of the things that we buy on a regular basis absolutely soared between 2002 and 2012.  Just check out these price increases...
  • Eggs: 73%
  • Coffee: 90%
  • Peanut Butter: 40%
  • Milk: 26%
  • A Loaf Of White Bread: 39%
  • Spaghetti And Macaroni: 44%
  • Orange Juice: 46%
  • Red Delicious Apples: 43%
  • Beer: 25%
  • Wine: 60%
  • Electricity: 42%
  • Margarine: 143%
  • Tomatoes: 22%
  • Turkey: 56%
  • Ground Beef: 61%
  • Chocolate Chip Cookies: 39%
So how in the world can Bernanke possibly come to the conclusion that inflation is too low?
Is he insane?
If you want to see a really good example of the impact that inflation has had on our economy in recent years, just check out this amazing chart which shows what Bernanke's reckless policies have done to the prices of commodities during his tenure.
Meanwhile, paychecks are not rising at the same pace that inflation is.  In fact, median household income in the United States has fallen for four years in a row.  Overall, it has declined by over $4000 during that time span.
So the cost of living just keeps rising, but the middle class is making less money than before.
That certainly is not good news.
Of course a big reason for this is because the quality of jobs in America continues to steadily decline.  Only 47 percent of adults have a full-time job at this point, and 53 percent of all American workers make less than $30,000 a year.
Most families are just barely scraping by from month to month, and Bernanke has the gall to say that he needs to try to get prices to rise even faster.
Is Bernanke also going to increase all of our paychecks in order to make up for the "inflation tax" that is being imposed on all of us?
Of course not.
And sadly, it appears that the number of Americans that are losing their jobs is starting to move upward again.  We just learned that initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to 360,000 last week.
That is getting dangerously close to the 400,000 number that I keep talking about.
The middle class in the United States is shrinking with each passing day, and Bernanke seems absolutely clueless.
His answer to every economic problem always seems to involve printing more money.  Thankfully, about 1.8 trillion dollars of that money is being stashed away at the Fed and has not gotten out into the real economy yet.
But someday that money will be unleashed on the real economy, and it will create crippling inflation.
Unfortunately, Bernanke doesn't seem to really be too concerned about the mountains of cash that the big banks have parked at the Fed.  He is just happy that his reckless money printing has pumped up the stock market to new all-time highs.
He should enjoy this little period of euphoria while he can, because this bubble will burst like all false financial bubbles eventually do.
And when this bubble bursts, the foolishness of Bernanke and the Federal Reserve will be glaringly apparent to everyone.

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

May's consumer credit detail

Interesting that May 2013 was a replay of May 2012! 
Why the surge in credit card outstandings again this May.....Not sure what the salient factors for this might be......

Consumer Credit Has Second Highest Monthly Increase In Two Years

Zero Hedge

As if predicting the jump in interest rates in June, consumers took advantage of cheap credit conditions two months ago to load up on debt, pushing the May Consumer Credit higher by $19.6 billion, well above expectations of a $12.5 billion jump. This was the second highest sequential jump post the consumer credit data set revision, only second to the $19.9 billion from last May. And just like a year ago, revolving credit jumped by $6.6 billion following months of stagnating levels. 
It did the same in May 2012 when it rose by $6.8 billion when consumers also appeared to be prepaying summer purchases. The balance of credit expansion was once again driven by a surge in student and car loans, which amounted to $13 billion of the total May increase.
Whether this credit growth continues into June is skeptical following the jump in interest, and especially following the doubling of the prevailing subsidized Stafford Loan rate which will likely cripple future student loan extraction.

As for the big picture, or where the bulk of this "credit" has come from, the story remains the same. It's all government, all the time as the following chart from@not_jim_cramer confirms.

Sunday, July 7, 2013

15 Signs That The Quality Of Jobs In America Is Fading Fast


for your ponderment:
- what does the future hold for our country as we continue to experience these downhill trends in our economic engine?
- what do we need to do to change the direction of these trends? (hint - it does not involve the government's (nor the quasi governmental agencies) continuing and hazardously injurious interventions!)

15 Signs That The Quality Of Jobs In America Is Fading Fast

 Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog

The following are 15 signs that the quality of jobs in America is going downhill really fast...
#1 The number of part-time workers in the United States has just hit a brand new all-time high, but the number of full-time workers is still nearly 6 million below the old record that was set back in 2007.
#2 In America today, only 47 percent of adults have a full-time job.
#3 Even though the U.S. economy created nearly 200,000 jobs in June, the number of full-time jobs actually decreased.
#4 There are now 2.7 million temp workers in the United States - a new all-time high.
#5 One out of every ten jobs in the United States is now filled through a temp agency.
#6 The U.S. economy has actually lost manufacturing jobs for four consecutive months.
#7 The official unemployment rate has been at 7.5 percent or higher for 54 months in a row.  That is the longest stretch in U.S. history.
#8 According to one recent survey, 76 percent of all Americans are living paycheck to paycheck.
#9 At this point, one out of every four American workers has a job that pays $10 an hour or less.
#10 High paying manufacturing jobs continue to be shipped overseas.  Sadly, there are fewer Americans employed in manufacturing now than there was in 1950 even though the population of the country has more than doubled since then.
#11 Today, the United States actually has a higher percentage of workers doing low wage work than any other major industrialized nation does.
#12 The U.S. economy continues to trade good paying jobs for low paying jobs.  60 percent of the jobs lost during the last recession were mid-wage jobs, but 58 percentof the jobs created since then have been low wage jobs.
#13 Back in 1980, less than 30% of all jobs in the United States were low income jobs.  Today, more than 40% of all jobs in the United States are low income jobs.
#14 At this point, an astounding 53 percent of all American workers make less than $30,000 a year.
#15 According to a study that was released by the Center for Economic and Policy Research, only 24.6 percent of all jobs in the United States qualify as "good jobs" at this point.  In a previous article, I detailed the three criteria that they used to define what a "good job" is….
#1 The job must pay at least $18.50 an hour.  According to the authors, that is the equivalent of the median hourly pay for American workers back in 1979 after you adjust for inflation.
#2 The job must provide access to employer-sponsored health insurance, and the employer must pay at least some portion of the cost of that insurance.
#3 The job must provide access to an employer-sponsored retirement plan.

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

it's all about the fundamentals, right?

O Fundamentals, fundamentals, wherefore art thou fundamentals?
Deny thy easy money and refuse thy FOMC QE;
Or if thou wilt not, be but sworn to fiscal responsibility
And I'll no longer be a Keynesian


It's All About The Fundamentals
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