Probably more than you wanted to know but here is the detail on
the two different data sets and how their survey information is derived.
For September,
the politically important unemployment rate fell to 7.8% in September from 8.1%
the prior month, according to the Labor Department. That was the lowest level
since January 2009 and well below the 8.1% forecast of economists surveyed by
Dow Jones Newswires. The unemployment rate estimate is derived from a survey
of households, which came up with an estimate that 863,000 jobs were added
for the month.
But the
separate establishment survey from which the official payrolls number is
derived reported a more modest seasonally adjusted gain of 114,000 jobs in
September. That was below the consensus forecast of 118,000, though the
previous two months were revised higher.
Mr. Hall said
the inconsistent reports reflect the different samples used in the two
surveys, one focused on households the other on businesses. The
establishment survey has a huge sample size of 141,000 business and
agencies covering 486,000 worksites, whereas the household survey
covers just 60,000 homes.
“The household
survey is much smaller. When you look at something like labor force and
employment levels, the uncertainty of those numbers is much larger,”
said Mr. Hall. “Within two months, the household survey could show the
unemployment rate eking back up.”
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