retail sales data

Although erratic (continuation of the new normal!) it appears that we are experiencing a downward trend overall. This would be in line with recent data regarding the sluggish level of income growth we have been experiencing thus generating less disposable income for the average American. Additionally, regarding one of the 'bright spots' of retail sales - has the auto sales wave reached its peak?

With the continued reporting of volatile economic data it would appear that the FOMC has plenty of 'room' to continue its forward thrust with market assistance (IE: more QE).

For the community banking world that will provide a continuation of the operating atmosphere that we have been living/struggling with...slow asset growth, low yield on earning assets, continued margin compression.  

Yet, we must be ever mindful of (as the OCC has warned and continues to warn us) the possibility of extension risk - when reviewing and assessing your market risk make sure you are factoring in the 'probability zones' for outcomes that reflect erratic yield movement. 

Chart Of The Day

Interesting to ponder upon the NSA (not seasonally adjusted) retail sales numbers for the month of September over the last several years.....the NSA numbers reflect an even greater downward trending over the last four years.